Indian Currents -
"8
Billion and Counting: How Sex, Death, and Migration Shape Our
World."
Great title! But the phenomenon is much greater - overwhelming,
mind-boggling!! Though, I am afraid whether anyone of this 8 billion plus is
bothered. But I am afraid - of the scenario. If there was anyone
who really bothered, the book should have emerged from India. For now,
the author is Jennifer Sciuba, political demography expert from Rhodes
College. So that is a pointer to the education and research happening in
countries like India, which are not being taken with adequate seriousness, the
ga-ga going about the NEP 2020 notwithstanding. I wonder how many
institutions/educators would have ever raised this matter for a discussion in
their classes.
Nov. 15, 2022 - another milestone in the Anthropocene, with the anthropos
spreading over the planet hitting the terrifying startling number of 8 billion
(8 followed by 9 zeroes)! Venice Mabansag, born through normal delivery at Dr.
Jose Fabella Memorial Hospital, Manila, at 1.29 am is reported to be the 8
billionth child on the planet earth. Is it a time to celebrate the indomitable
human spirit, life or a time to lament, correct, or a time to assess, plan and
collaborate for a stable, better and peaceful world?
In 11 to 12 years the human species are able to add one more billion to
their numbers, while simultaneously managing to displace millions of other
species from the planet - it is not to create space to accommodate these added
millions, but it is because a handful of the homo sapiens have
been able to erect their own kingdoms of indulgence and luxury at the expense
of these disappearing millions.
Scuiba is arguing for more and deeper research in the field, which I fully
concur with. She says what is good about this field is that we definitely
can foresee future to some extent - in the sense, today's working earing
youngsters would be the future aging group, and today's toddlers will be the
future working group. With that certainty in hand, and with the possible
projections in the field of health care and longevity, much can be
planned.
She also perceives that the vast divergence across continents and nations in
population dynamics - fertility, mortality and migration - tend to be
converging; and gap is getting reduced. So, the doomsday predictions,
especially relating to migration trends, needn't be all that realistic, and
though migration on account of push factors (poverty, climate change etc.) will
continue to happen, it wouldn't be to the extent of displacing or swallowing up
populations altogether.
India in Focus
Turning to the Indian sub-continent - now India is all set to overtake China
in another year or so, to be the most populous nation of the world. People who
think get worried - less for themselves, more for the future and wellbeing of
humanity. There are some who worry for life beyond the humans on the planet as
well.
It would be interesting to trace the growth in world population. In 1850 it
was 1.2 billion; another 50 years, into 20th century, it was still just 1.6
billion; and it was in 1927 that humanity crossed the 2 billion mark.
Since then, there had been no turning back, initially slow - reaching 3 by
1960, then picking up pace steadily 4 billion in 1974, 5 in 1987, 6 in 1999 and
7 in 2011. The projections see 10 billion people by 2058
In the last 11 years, the world has added another billion.
The child from the neighbouring Bangladesh, who was selected as the 7
billionth child, Sadia Sultana Oishee, was on the BBC as the human population
is said to have hit the 8 billion mark. Now 11 years old, she has a star
status, though still leading an ordinary girl's life in the outskirts of Dhaka
to make life more affordable against the price induced by the pandemic.
She dreams big to be a doctor, and the family is supportive. But Sadia's
country, Bangladesh has contributed 17 million of this one billion; where as
its big brother around, India, has added 160 million. However, it showed
a steady decline in the rate of this increase from 1.37% in 2011 to .68% in
2022. Plan International gave the certificate of being the 7 billionth
person on the planet to Nargis Kumar, UP, as a token of protest against
the trend of sex-selective abortion in the state, with India having a boy -
girl ratio of 914, while in the state of UP it remains a shocking 889.
Can the earth carry so many? The 6 billionth child, now 23 year old
Adnan Mevic of Bosnia-Herzegovina, one of the most rapidly declining
populations, is also worried: 2 billion is a lot... I don't know how our
beautiful planet will cope. It is a worrying question before the few who
are concerned. Holy Father, Pope Francis, cited the extreme positions people
tend to take in this regard in his encyclical Laudato Si: that of
projecting unlimited progress potential and technological solutions for
everything and that of a pessimistic view of the human role as the cause of all
damage to the ecological balance, and hence their very presence on the planet
to be reduced (LS 60).
I am glad to recall Indira Gandhi, our former Prime Minister, who could articulate this concern way back in 1972 at the Stockholm summit in a vary articulate manner: "It is an over—simplification to blame all the world’s problems on increasing population. Countries with but a small fraction of the world population consume the bulk of the world’s production of minerals, fossil fuels and so on. Thus we see that when it comes to the depletion of natural resources and environmental pollution, the increase of one inhabitant in an affluent country, at his level of living, is equivalent to an increase of many Asian, Africans or Latin Americans at their current material levels of living."
India, has to re-establish itself as a leader by creating a hunger and
poverty free world, beginning with itself. This is not at all impossible,
but is only a matter of priority. Besides, it has to take along with it,
the three neighbours in the LDC list - Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal in its
drive towards a world free of hunger and poverty.
Sustainability - Planet and People
The UN population projections show a slower growth rate, but overall
continued growth for more than a century from now. As per these trends,
by 2100 the world is expected to be home for 11.2 billion of homo
sapiens, and the axiom of 'responsible consumption and production' has
to be an outcome of all sorts of education, viz., formal education, family and
social education, religious education... There has to be a multi-pronged global
endeavour to sustain the planet for future generations, where a dignified life
for all (beings) would be possible.
The stark reality that earth's resources do not increase and are limited
becomes clearer; but there is also the fact that of the food produced globally
a third or more is lost or destroyed; whereas technology and a fairer
distribution can still make the world's hungry poor satisfied, not in another world,
but in this world itself (LS 60).
There is also the data that points to reduction in the rate of population
growth as a nation advances in literacy and technology, with quite a few
nations having growth rate that goes below the required rate for replacement of
successive generations (2.1 births per woman) - Europe in general, and 10 of
the most populous nations, including China come under this category. But
this is countered by the trend in 47 of the least developed countries (LDC)
maintaining a birth rate of 4.3 per woman. (However, there are some paradoxes
as well - Senegal one of the LDCs, is capable of fielding a team for the world
cup 2022; Bhutan, another, is often referred to as the country with highest
gross happiness index).
While population control measures are the most popular and perhaps effective
initiatives so far, the stand of the Church has been of responsible parenthood
(Pope Paul VI, 1968. Humanae Vitae), which would imply life-styles that promote
life and respect it, and advocates these principles to guide natural and
rightful human sexual and reproductive relations. I would consider it on
parallel lines with the modern day secular sustainable development goal of
'responsible consumption and production'.
And, looking at trends, I am just being optimistic, that many parts of the
world would require people from the rest of the world to keep them alive,
working and producing. Signals in this direction are already seen from
countries like Japan. So that is again an optimistic, perhaps, naive way of
looking forward to 'where the whole world will become one nest' - yatra
sarva vishwam bhavati eka nidam.
Seven
Billion <11 November 2022>
World
Population By Year <16 November 2022>
https://bangladeshpost.net/posts/as-the-8-billionth-child-is-born-who-were-5th-6th-and-7th-99238
<17
November 2022>
Very topical article. Hope many people will read it.
ReplyDeleteThe article reveals many unravel facts on Sustainability.
ReplyDelete